Power Rankings: Sony Open in Hawaii

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Jan. 9, 2012
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Columnist

The Sony Open in Hawaii is the first full-field event on the PGA TOUR schedule. As such, it possesses a converging dynamic. As of midday Monday, 18 of the qualifiers that competed in last week's season opener on Maui -- the most exclusive tournament all season -- will play alongside 24 TOUR rookies, nine of which will be making their debuts on the circuit.

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Of course, this contrast is nothing new for this annual trip to Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. Since the winners-only lid-lifter migrated to Hawaii in 1999, the official season has started with the same 1-2 exacta out of the gate every year but one (2001).

Unfortunately for the first-timers this week, another constant has been the inherent yet rude learning curve at Waialae. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last top 10 by a rookie at this event when Matt Weibring shared eighth place. Last year, Chris Kirk's T30 was tops among 27 rookies in the field of 144.

Setting aside the need to ignore the ocean vistas and tropical climate all too welcome for mainlanders in January, Waialae's challenges are two-fold -- winds and width -- the latter as it relates to fairways. It's not often that hitting fairways is a priority but it matters this week.

In the last six years, the track has ranked inside the top three most difficult in driving accuracy four times; it slotted a relatively benign 12th last year (56.28 percent) thanks to damp conditions. Champion Mark Wilson split 41 fairways, second-most for the week; eight of the 12 on the final leaderboard finished inside the top 15 in accuracy off the tee.

Meanwhile, the par-70 Waialae has maintained a position just inside the top half most difficult in greens in regulation over the last six years, which is to say that it's no worse than average. However, the emphasis on finding the short grass is realized in the splits of proximity to the hole from the rough. Over the same six-year period, Waialae has averaged just outside the top 10 in this stat. It ranked inside the top six longest in three of the last four years, including the last two. Remember, the move to channel grooves began in 2010 so the correlation may be more than a coincidence.

Not to be overshadowed is the significance of the game on the greens. Waialae checked in at T21 in Strokes Gained-Putting a year ago, but it hadn't sat lower than T15 the previous five years. And while the track hasn't cracked the top 20 in scrambling in the last six years, proficiency in this area of the game is a common thread among the golfers included below. This likely speaks to the aforementioned experience factor.

A rain-soaked course allowed for a more gettable course in 2011, but weather should cooperate throughout this week's edition. While you can never rule out a passing shower, there is no threat of the kind of persistent rain that forced a 36-hole Sunday finish last year. This time around, only a mild chance of precipitation exists. More importantly, winds are already forecast to be moderate, so expect the usual bite. High temperatures will peak at a seasonable 80 degrees.

MORE: Fantasy projections for all 246 players | Medical | Reshuffle | Major qualifiers

Power Rankings: Sony Open in Hawaii
Rank Player   Comment
Steve
STRICKER
Any residual concern over the herniated disc in his neck has been discarded. He's posted top 10s in four of his last five trips to Waialae, including the last two years. Ranked second on TOUR in 2011 in both scrambling and Strokes Gained-Putting.
K.J.
CHOI
Won this event in 2008 and has four other top 15s but none since 2009 (T12). Steady, not spectacular, throughout his bag but has finished inside the top 30 in scrambling the last two years. Finished 2011 with a stream of top 10s, including a win.
Zach
JOHNSON
Latest victim to a Tiger Woods' door slam at the Chevron World Challenge; ZJ finished solo second at Sherwood a month ago. He's ranked inside the top 10 on TOUR in fairways hit; sat fourth in scrambling last year. Won the Sony in 2009.
Charles
HOWELL III
An annual visitor and oft-contender at Waialae. He hasn't missed the cut in 10 trips, five of which resulted in a top five. Fierce with his irons but underrated with his par-saving play. Inside the top seven on TOUR in scrambling the last two years.
David
TOMS
Fits the profile of what it takes to tame Waialae. The 2006 champ also has a T2 in 2009. He finished last year ranked sixth in both fairways and greens hit on the PGA TOUR. Also checked in at a robust 18th in Strokes Gained-Putting.
Webb
SIMPSON
A mainstay in this feature shared ninth place in his debut at Waialae in 2009 but he's been a non-factor since. Needs to convert more putts inside five feet but citing that as a weakness is a stretch. Led the TOUR in the all-around in 2011.
Kevin
NA
Happy with the progress of his game off the tee, but gets the nod for his ability to save par and track record. Inside the top 15 in scrambling in each of his first eight years on TOUR. Also has a pair of top fives at Waialae (2008, 2009). Finished T20 last year.
John
SENDEN
You'd figure an Aussie that makes his living hitting fairways and greens would contend annually at windy Waialae, but he's a mere 3-for-8 with a pair of T20s. However, he's putting better than ever. Top 20s in his last five starts worldwide.
Chad
CAMPBELL
Another prototype for how to succeed at Waialae. Best known as a ball-striker with a tilt towards hitting greens in regulation, it's no surprise that he's 8-for-9 at this event. That includes four top 15s in his last five visits.
Robert
ALLENBY
As his putter goes, so goes the Aussie. He has as many top 10s at Waialae (three) as he does missed cuts, trading one for the other in his last six appearances. Has four top 15s in his last six starts worldwide, including a T2 at the Australian PGA.

In 2012, our expert will be publishing his list of players who didn't quite make the top 10 for that particular week. Here are Rob Bolton's five other players for the Sony Open in Hawaii:

Jerry Kelly The 2002 champ ranks second all-time in earnings at this event (idle two-time winner Ernie Els sits first). In 14 starts, Kelly has eight top 15s, including a T9 a year ago. Always accurate off the tee, he ranked a career-best third in fairways hit in 2011.

Mark Wilson En route to his two-stroke victory here a year ago, he ranked second in fairways hit, T10 in greens, fifth in putting and T2 in birdies. He played his last 40 holes in bogey-free 11-under. Inside the top 35 on TOUR in scrambling the last five years.

Brian Gay Epitome of the learning curve despite his knack to hit fairways. Missed the cut here in his first two years on TOUR (1999-2000) but has gone 10-for-10 since with five top 25s, including the last three years. Annually among the tops in scrambling, too.

Davis Love III The 47-year-old has made 12 starts dating back to 1986. He has six top 10s with a pair of runner-up finishes in the decade of the 1990s, but also placed T5 in 2010 and T9 last year. Enters with eight consecutive rounds in the 60s at Waialae.

Rory Sabbatini He's never finished inside the top 115 on TOUR in fairways hit but that hasn't prevented success at Waialae where he's clearly comfortable. In his last six trips, he's finished second twice and posted two more top 15s.

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