On the outside looking in? You've still got time
By PGATOUR.COM staff
This week's FedEx St. Jude Classic marks the final third of the PGA TOUR's regular season. Eleven weeks remain before the start of the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup.
It's obviously not too late to make a move to climb inside the top 125 in FedExCup points, the cutoff for players who are eligible for the Playoffs. It's also not too late for players to move inside the all-important top 30 in points, which gives pros a leg-up in their chances to reach THE TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola.
At this point a year ago, 14 players who would eventually make the Playoffs found themselves outside the top 125 going into this week. The year before, 13 players were able to move inside the top 125 in the final third of the regular season.
Chris Riley and Matt Bettencourt are the only players to make that leap in both years. Riley was 133rd in points going into TPC Southwind last year but moved to 87th by the end of the regular season; in 2009, he was 179th and moved to 119th. Bettencourt moved from 188th to 106th in the final 11 weeks of 2010, and 179th to 119th in 2011.
Dramatic one-week leaps are certainly possible. Consider Robert Garrigus.
He arrived in Memphis a year ago ranked 185th in points but took a two-shot lead going into the final round. Even though he stumbled at the end and lost in a three-man playoff, his tie for second moved him to 97th in points. Garrigus' play at Memphis essentially earned him his spot in the Playoffs for the FedExCup, as he nearly slid out of the top 125.
In 2009, Bryce Molder took a similar jump at Memphis. Thanks to an eagle late in Sunday's final round, he moved into a tie for second behind eventual winner Brian Gay, moving Molder from 185th to 92nd in FedExCup points. Molder would evetually rise to 55th going into the Playoffs.
Molder, in fact, came from further back than any other player in the last 11 weeks of 2009 to make the Playoffs. Last year, it was Dean Wilson who made the biggest move in the final third of the season, going from 202nd to 109th down the stretch to earn his Playoffs ticket.
Yet even the small leaps can set up big payoffs.
Two years ago, Heath Slocum stood 133rd in FedExCup points as he hit his opening tee shot at TPC Southwind in the first round. Slocum shot 63 in the second round to make the cut, shot 67 on moving day and eventually finished tied for 10th when the dust settled Sunday evening. That moved him to 105th on the points list.
Like Garrigus a year later, Slocum needed every one of those points, as he nearly slid out of the top 125. But he held on to start the Playoffs in 124th position. He then shocked the field at The Barclays, winning at Liberty National that year, which -- thanks to the increased playoff points -- moved him all the way to third. Slocum eventually ended the Playoffs eighth in FedExCup points.
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Had he not played so well in Memphis, he might have never gotten a spot in the Playoffs.
Players who are aware of their FedExCup standings understand the importance of each tournament start. Of the 75 players currently between 126th and 200th on the points list, 53 of them are playing the FedEx St. Jude Classic, and 14 of the next 25 (between 201-225 in points) are also in the field.
Here's a look at some of the notable names at TPC Southwind this week who are currently on the outside looking in in terms of the top 125 in FedExCup points. Each of the four names below has never missed the Playoffs in the first four years but is in danger this year.
• Camilo Villegas (130th in points). In 2008, Villegas won the last two Playoffs events and finished second to FedExCup champ Vijay Singh. Hard to imagine one of the TOUR's bright young stars won't be able to find an extra gear in the next 11 weeks.
• Boo Weekley (137th). In Weekley's last 24 rounds on TOUR, he's a collective 25 over and hasn't finished better than a tie for 45th.
• Retief Goosen (147th). The two-time U.S. Open champ has yet to post a top-10 finish in his first seven starts this year.
• Heath Slocum (157th). Slocum has missed the cut in nine of 15 starts this year, including his last three. But he usually plays well in this event (top 10s the last two years).
Eleven weeks is plenty of time to change the complexion of a player's entire season.
Through the first 11 weeks of this year, David Toms was 108th in FedExCup points. But then he tied for third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard and he's been on a roll ever since. He's picked up 1,120 points in his last six TOUR starts, thanks in large part to a win at the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial and the playoff loss at THE PLAYERS Championship.
Those last two results alone gave him 830 FedExCup points; last year, 830 points would have been good enough to qualify in 37th position going into the Playoffs.
Toms, now eighth in points going into this week, should have no worries about keeping his top 30 status the rest of the year. The rest of this week's field can use him as an example -- get hot now and you can still make a big FedExCup move.
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