Complex layout of TPC Sawgrass makes it impossible to predict a winner

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Jim Furyk: "It's definitely not a bomber's paradise off the tee. It's very limiting for the Tigers and the Henrik Stensons of the world."

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- It neutralizes power. It neutralizes putting wizards. It even neutralizes a home-field advantage.

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The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass plays no favorites during THE PLAYERS Championship. Long hitter? The multitude of medium-length par-4s take the driver right out of your hands. Great putter? The small greens and severe slopes put more of an emphasis on ball-striking.

In short, the course makeup makes it impossible to predict a winner. Since the event moved to the Stadium Course in 1982, no player has managed to win more than twice, even as the best players in the world continue to show up year after year.

The results almost defy logic. David Duval missed half the fairways when he bombed and gouged his way to victory in 1999. Six years later, Fred Funk won despite averaging a banjo-like 253 yards off the tee.

Funk is one of a handful of PGA TOUR stars who have lived within earshot of the course for the last decade. Funk, Vijay Singh and Jim Furyk have combined for 57 PGA TOUR wins, but Funk's win in 2005 remains the only PLAYERS win among that venerable local trio. All three will try again this week when the first round of THE 2010 PLAYERS cranks up Thursday.

Not that Furyk and Singh haven't tried with all their might. Furyk's abilty to shape shots off the tee into the optimal spot on the fairway enables him to avoid the massive, elongated fairway bunkers that line eight of the 18 holes.

The long, narrow fairway bunkers are a good example of how the course doesn't really play favorites. It only takes a handful of rounds at the Stadium Course -- and a few shots from said fairway bunkers -- to realize that hitting the fairway is the No. 1 priority from the first shot. Short hitters like Furyk and Funk already know that, but long bombers like defending champion Henrik Stenson quickly learn to leave the driver in the bag for most of the par-4s.

"As far as iron shots into the greens or reading the greens, the other 51 weeks [he plays the course] are pretty worthless to be honest with you," Furyk said. "I think that the knowledge you can gain really is definitely not with the greens year-round. It would be more with sight lines off the tees."

"The golf course has a lot of those long bunkers on the inside of the tee box or inside of the fairway. Sometimes on the doglegs, sight lines change whether you're into the wind, downwind, fast conditions, slow conditions. I think you gain a little bit of an advantage really off the tee box of where you want to hit the ball maybe playing here year-round."

Another reason for the diverse list of winners? Because the field is so deep, many of the players have years of experience playing the course. Even with top players like Steve Stricker, Anthony Kim and Retief Goosen out with injury, there are only a couple of dozen players making their first start at TPC Sawgrass. It's safe to say that a first-timer won't win -- Craig Perks did it his first try in 2002, but he's the exception, not the rule.

"You get an element of remembering how you played holes and remembering mistakes you made in the past or mistakes even other players have made in the past," Padraig Harrington said.

Another wrench in the prediction process is the rough. The cold, dry winter that affected all of North Florida has also prevented the rough from growing as thick as it was in 2008 and 2009, when only one player -- Stenson -- managed to hit 10 under after four rounds. Stenson said this week he expects scores to be slightly better this year, especially with the heavy rain that soaked the course on Tuesday and Wednesday.

One thing is certain: scoring under par on the par 4s is absolutely critical. But even short par 4s like the 384-yard fourth and the 358-yard 12th are not easy, and it's very difficult to get through the hallway-like 18th hole unscathed. Paul Goydos stood on the 18th tee in the final round in 2008 with the lead but he bogeyed the hole when he missed the fairway.

Stenson's four-shot victory last year was melodramatic; his bogey-free 66 sapped much of the drama out of the water-filled finish at TPC Sawgrass, but Harrington said it was an anomaly.

"The golf course isn't boring," Harrington said. "That is the last thing you could ever accuse it of. Nobody is home until they get through the 17th."

O'Hair

No one knows that better than Sean O'Hair. O'Hair nearly won in 2007 after hitting the ball 300 yards and straight all week on the Stadium Course, only to lose when he dumped a 9-iron into the water on No. 17 in the final round. The shot itself wasn't that bad, but it was struck too hard, sending it over the green. Game over.

O'Hair's off-the-tee success in 2007 showed just how vital long, straight driving is on the Stadium Course. It is a course that Ben Hogan probably would have loved; his ability to hit it far down the fairway would have given him a shot to win year after year.

Missing the fairway is usually akin to a half-stroke penalty at the Stadium Course. Stenson countered the rough in 2009 by using a 3-wood off the tee the majority of the week, instead relying on the 50 yards of roll he squeezed out of every fairway. The result? His 3-woods off the tee were not only straight but left him short irons into most of the par 4s. It was often the difference between a 15-foot birdie putt and a 15-yard chip.

Getting into position to hit the green on most courses but its especially important at TPC Sawgrass, which utilizes a handful of crowned greens that almost appear plucked from a Donald Ross design of another era. This design demands good approach shots, and a check of the stats backs it up: only two winners, Justin Leonard (1998) and Lee Janzen (1995) failed to finish in the top 30 in greens in regulation for the week.

"Once you start getting more than 25 feet away from the holes, there's always going to be a crown to putt over," Harrington said. "It is essential to hit as many fairways as you can, and at times take a cautious approach off the tee but probably be a bit more aggressive on the par 5s and see where it goes from there."

Seeing where it goes is only half the battle. Finding out where it lands may very well determine which player emerges victorious this Sunday.